While cargo volumes at the nation’s retail container ports are expected to dip 6 percent this year, economists are warning there may be a traffic jam this October at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
Economist Paul Bingham, who tracks the nation’s ports for the economic consulting firm Global Insight and the National Retail Federation, noted that the new Clean Trucks Program, beginning Oct. 1 at the two California ports, could put a crimp in timely pick-ups and drop-offs because of a possible shortage of truck drivers enrolled in the new program.
In a Port Tracker report released Sept. 9 by the NRF and prepared by Global Insight, the congestion rating for Los Angeles and Long Beach ports was raised to “medium.” So far this year, there have been no problems with getting cargo in and out of the ports.
“Uncertainty about the initial implementation of the Clean Trucks Program raises concerns about potential truck capacity for these ports,” Bingham said in a statement. “There is some risk for port performance associated with this program, but the ports say they have received letters of intent from several trucking companies and say they believe operations can go forward without interruption.”
Other major U.S. ports such as those in Oakland, Calif.; Seattle; Tacoma, Wash.; Houston; and New York and New Jersey are rated “low” for congestion.
The cargo volume for 2008 is projected to be only 15.5 million 20-foot containers for the year, compared with 16.5 million containers in 2007. In August, economists had predicted the cargo volume might be as much as 15.7 million for 2008.
“Retailers are tightening up their inventories to reflect what they expect to be able to sell during the holiday season,” said Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The economy is clearly challenging, and our industry is trying to hit the balance point between supply and demand as closely as they can.”
In July, major U.S. ports handled 1.32 million containers, down 8.3 percent from July 2007.
August volume is expected to be down 5.8 percent to 1.38 million containers, and September is predicted to be down 8.6 percent to 1.35 million containers. —Deborah Belgum
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